Is value investing the right strategy in volatile markets?
Markets are in wild swing going down 2-3% in a single day
and this volatility has been persisting for the last one month
without going into the reasons for this decline let us see whether it
makes sense to look at EPS and PE to invest into this market
The first point to
note is that the market changes its PE ratio and of all the sectors along with
it as it goes down when news is driving the stock market and that too
macro news that concerns the economy you
never know to what level the market is going to adjust the PE ratio what may
look like a good PE ratio to invest may just get adjusted in a week’s time as
the market adjusts to the new macroeconomic
scenario so don’t look out for value deals instead look at the macro and then decide
to what level the market is adjusting itself
Secondly as earnings drive the EPS and PE ratios of the world earning growth can get
adjusted very wildly if the market is dealing with a new reality of slowing
economy or even recession all the earlier earnings estimates go out of the
window very fast as the market adjusts itself
on the downside and the downside is based on panic so it all right to say that buy on fear but
when you don’t know of now when the fear psychosis is coming to end it could be
very risky to be a value investor
because the definition of value is changing on weekly basis
So the point is if the market is volatile in a grip of a
panic it makes sense to be just a trader and go with the flow than trying to a
value investor because the wealth erosion could be severe if you are wrong
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