Monday, September 12, 2011


Is value investing the right strategy in volatile markets?

Markets are in wild swing going down 2-3% in a single day and this volatility has been persisting for the last  one month  without going into the reasons for this decline let us see whether it makes sense to look at EPS and PE to invest into this market

The first point  to note is that the market changes its PE ratio and of all the sectors along with it as it goes down when news is driving the stock market and that too macro  news that concerns the economy you never know to what level the market is going to adjust the PE ratio what may look like a good PE ratio to invest may just get adjusted in a week’s time as the market adjusts  to the new macroeconomic scenario so don’t look out for value deals instead look at the macro and then decide to what level the market is adjusting itself

Secondly as earnings drive the EPS and PE  ratios of the world earning growth can get adjusted very wildly if the market is dealing with a new reality of slowing economy or even recession all the earlier earnings estimates go out of the window very fast as the market adjusts itself  on the downside and the downside is based on panic  so it all right to say that buy on fear but when you don’t know of now when the fear psychosis is coming to end it could be very risky to be  a value investor because the definition of value is changing on weekly basis

So the point is if the market is volatile in a grip of a panic it makes sense to be just a trader and go with the flow than trying to a value investor because the wealth erosion could be severe if you are wrong 

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